As perRegistrar General of India Total Fertility Rate TFR is the average number of children that would be born to a woman if she experiences the current age-specific fertility patterns throughout her reproductive span (usually considered to be ages 15 to 49 years). In simple terms, it represents the average number of children a woman would have over her entire reproductive period.

Replacement Level: ATFRof 2.1 children per woman is considered the replacement level, meaning a population achieves relative stability in numbers over the long term, discounting migration.

Example and PresentTFRLevel in India

Example: A TFR of 1.5 means that, on average, a woman will have 1.5 children in her lifetime.

Present Level in India SRS2023): 1.9 children per woman.

This national figure is below the replacement level (2.1), signifying India is on the path to population stabilization or eventual decline (excluding migration).

Significance and Implications ofTotal Fertility Rate(TFR)

Significance: It determines the potential for long-term population change and is crucial for projecting the future size and age structure of the population.

When TFR Rises:

Indication: Suggests high fertility, a young age structure, and a basis for rapid population growth (a "youth bulge").
Implications: Places significant demand on social services for the youth, such as primary education, healthcare, and job creation in the future.

When TFR Drops:

Indication: Suggests successful family planning, female education, and economic development, leading to below-replacement fertility.
Implications: Leads to an aging population, increasing the Old-Age Dependency Ratio, and straining social security and pension systems due to a shrinking tax base.

How isTotal Fertility Rate(TFR) Different toCrude Birth Rate CBR?

Conceptual Difference

Crude Birth Rate CBR:

Definition: The number of live births per 1,000 people in the total mid-year population.
Nature: It is a crude rate because it relates births only to the total size of the population, including men, children, and elderly womenwhoare not biologically capable of giving birth.

Total Fertility Rate (TFR):

Definition: The average number of children a woman is expected to have over her entire reproductive period (ages 15 to 49), assuming she experiences the current age-specific fertility rates.
Nature: It is a refined rate as it focuses only on the specific population group responsible for births (women of childbearing age).

Policy and Planning Utility difference